Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate, Berkeley Haas study finds | Haas News | Berkeley Haas

How confident should you be in election polls? Not nearly as confident as the pollsters claim, according to a new Berkeley Haas study. Most election polls report a 95% confidence level. Yet an analysis of 1,400 polls from 11 election cycles found that the outcome lands within the poll’s result just 60% of the time. …